# Mat 540 week 5 mideterm latest 100% graded ( feb 2015 updated)

Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

 [removed] Standard deviation [removed] Range [removed] The z-score (the standard score) [removed] All of the above

Question 11

The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

 [removed] expected value [removed] expected opportunity loss [removed] expected value of perfect information [removed] none of the above

Question 12

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

 [removed] the coefficient of variation [removed] data sets [removed] random number ranges [removed] all of the above

Question 13

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

 No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability 0 .10 .10 1 .25 .35 2 .36 .71 3 .22 .93 4 .07 1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

 [removed] 0.1 [removed] 0.25 [removed] 0.35 [removed] 0.71

Question 14

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

 [removed] physical / physical [removed] physical / mathematical [removed] mathematical / physical [removed] mathematical / mathematical

Question 15

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

 [removed] 1 [removed] 2 [removed] 3 [removed] 4

Question 16

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

 [removed] Qualitative methods [removed] Regression [removed] Time series [removed] Quantitative methods

Question 17

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

 [removed] 273 [removed] 277 [removed] 267.8 [removed] 286.2

Question 18

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

 [removed] 0.01 [removed] 0.1 [removed] 0.5 [removed] 0.9

Question 19

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

 [removed] Forecast mistake [removed] Forecast error [removed] MAD [removed] Forecast accuracy

Question 20

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

 [removed] -1 [removed] 0 [removed] 1 [removed] -1 or 1

Question 21

Consider the following demand and forecast.

 Period Demand Forecast 1 7 10 2 12 15 3 18 20 4 22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

 [removed] 21 [removed] 22 [removed] 23 [removed] none of the above

Question 22

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

 [removed] Cumulative error [removed] MAD [removed] MAPD [removed] Average error

Question 23

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

 [removed] dependent, dependent [removed] independent, dependent [removed] dependent, independent [removed] independent, independent

Question 24

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

 [removed] Trend only [removed] Trend plus seasonal [removed] Seasonal only [removed] None of the above

Question 25

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 26

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 27

An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

5 points

Question 28

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 29

The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000).

If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

Question 30

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

Question 31

Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

 Demand Random Number Ranges 5 00-14 6 15-44 7 45-69 8 70-84 9 85-99

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